Latest Poll: Rauner Up 6% Over Quinn, Garnering 20% In Chicago

The latest polling data was released this morning on the Illinois Governor's race.  Featuring the responses of 1290 "likely" voters, it has challenger Bruce Rauner ahead of incumbent Illinois Governor Pat Quinn by 6%.

But...more importantly, it shows that Bruce Rauner's campaign is supported by 20% of voters in the City of Chicago.  20% is the so-called "Victory Line" for Republican candidates as past campaigns who have secured at least 20% of the Democrat-controlled voting block in the City of Chicago go on to win.

Rauner is working hard to set the record straight and is beginning to get his message about Pat Quinn not being the 'right guy' for Illinois through to voters.

Latest Poll: Tom Cross Up 11% Over Mike Frerichs In IL Treasurer's Race

The latest poll on the Illinois Treasurer's race shows that Tom Cross is extending his lead over Mike Frerichs as the race enters the final 35 days.

Taken on September 30th, the poll conducted by Communications Express asked 1200+ likely voters who they would cast their vote for in the Treasurer's race.

44.4% of voters picked Tom Cross while just 33.5% of voters selected Mike Frerichs.  This almost 11% spread is an increase over the 7% spread we documented back on September 22nd.

Also, a very important data nugget is marked above as Tom Cross is currently garnering 23% of the City of Chicago vote - which puts him above the so-called 'Victory Line' of 20% for Republican candidates in Chicago.  That 'Victory Line' shows that historically Republican candidates who can stay at or above 20% of the vote in Chicago go on to win their races.

This adds to a trend of Tom Cross growing his lead:  On September 5th, polling showed Cross was up 6% over Mike Frerichs.  And on September 22nd, that lead had grown to 7%.  Today, the data shows almost 11% spread between the two candidates.

Latest Poll On Comptroller's Race: Topinka Up 23%, Winning In Chicago

In a new poll of 1290 'likely' Illinois Voters, the firm Communications Express has found that a majority are siding with incumbent Judy Baar Topinka over challenger Sheila Simon.

The margin is 23% with Topinka polling over 50% of the total voters.

More interesting and, frankly, concerning to the Sheila Simon for Illinois Comptroller campaign is that the poll shows Judy Baar Topinka taking 42% of the votes in the City of Chicago and pacing ahead of Simon in the biggest block of Democrat voters.

There isn't a category that Simon tops Topinka and unless Judy implodes here, this thing appears over.

Some Perspective On Independent Voters: Cross up by 27%, White up 20%, Madigan Tied

We wanted to posit this additional data point to further demonstrate the strength of Tom Cross' campaign for Illinois Treasurer and his particular appeal to independent voters.

Earlier this morning, we covered how Tom Cross has extended his overall lead against his opponent Mike Frerichs.  And how he's opened a 27% lead on Frerichs in the eyes of independent voters.  The full post about the polling data is here.

Here's the chart showing Cross' lead with independent voters in the Treasurer's race:

But...that wasn't the only poll that the Sun-Times ran.  They also polled the rest of the statewide races.  And...in two of them, the spread of independent voters is smaller than that 27% that Cross is showing in the Treasurer's race.

Look at the Secretary of State race where everyone - and we mean EVERYONE - believes incumbent (Democrat) Secretary of State Jesse White will cruise to victory in November.  What's that race show in terms of appeal to independent voters?

White is winning them, but by a far less margin than Cross is winning them.  White is only besting his opponent - the little known Mike Webster - by 20% of independents:

And what about the Attorney General race?  Everyone is thinking that Lisa Madigan is going to cruise to victory against Paul Schimpf.  But...when you look at independent voters?  How is she faring?

It is a dead heat!

So...let's recap:

• Tom Cross is leading opponent Mike Frerichs for State Treasurer in the eyes of independent voters by 27%.
• Favorite Jesse White is leading opponent Mike Webster for Secretary of State in the eyes of independent voters by 20%.
• Incumbent and vote-getting powerhouse Lisa Madigan is flat out tied with her opponent Paul Schimpf for Attorney General - each with 35% of the independent vote.   

The work and message that Tom Cross has been bringing to voters of reform the Treasurer's office, balance the budget, and protect the taxpayers is breaking through with voters across the spectrum, but especially with independent voters.  

Tom Cross Gains in Latest Poll for IL Treasurer, Dominates Independent Voters by 27%

Just earlier this month, we covered how Tom Cross is leading his opponent Mike Frerichs in polling data from around the state.  In the latest polling that was done for the Chicago Sun-Times, Cross has gained a point in growing his overall lead over Frerichs.

But he's done something even more interesting:  He's grown the gap (dare we say chasm) between his campaign and that of Mike Frerichs in the eyes of independent voters.

Back in early September, Cross garnered 46% of the independents.  Frerichs at 26%.

Today?  Cross added a few points to take 48% of the independent voters.  And Mike Frerichs dropped to just 21%.

A gap of 20% is now almost 27%.  I'd say that's 'trending in the right direction'.  Wouldn't you?!?

New Data On Mike Frerichs' Latest Campaign Move

The latest survey data has come back from "We Ask Some of America" and the results aren't that surprising.  In asking voters across Illinois why anyone 'would wear a sash', they overwhelmingly identified the two major areas of sash-wearing: Pageants and European Royalty.  In surprising news, Candidate for Illinois Treasurer Mike Frerichs' latest move of wearing a sash during the Mexican Independence Day Parade appears to have registered on voters radar.

Latest Poll on Treasurer's Race: Tom Cross Continues To Lead Mike Frerichs, Dominates Independents

This morning, the folks over at RebootIllinois have published the latest findings of a We Ask America poll on the Illinois Treasurer's race.  This is the 3rd in their series with all three of them - dating back to late Spring - show Republican Tom Cross ahead of his opponent Democrat Mike Frerichs.

One of the most interesting facets?  Tom Cross - who the Illinois Observer earlier today said was running a 'near-flawless campaign' - is way ahead with the all-important "independent voters".

We'll cover the full poll in more depth in future posts, but we can't help but see this as a huge sign that trends well for the Cross campaign.

From Reboot's poll:

 
Cross' lead of 20+ points with independents is a critical factor to watch.  As you guys well know by now, we'll be all over this race in the final two months.

Judy Topinka Continues To Roll Sheila Simon in Comptroller Race

The latest poll from the folks at Reboot Illinois and We Ask 'Murica have her growing her lead and taking 1 out of every 3 voters in Chicago.

A new Reboot Illinois Illinois comptroller poll finds incumbent and veteran Illinois politician Judy Baar Topinka with a significant lead over Democratic challenger Sheila Simon. 

Despite the inclusion of Libertarian candidate Julie Fox, whose party won a spot on the Nov. 4 ballot last month, Topinka had her best showing yet among the three Reboot Illinois/We Ask America polls conducted thus far on the comptroller’s race. The latest poll, conducted Sept. 2 among 1,064 likely voters, gave Topinka a nearly 20-point lead over Simon, who opted to run against Topinka over seeking re-election as Pat Quinn’s lieutenant governor. 

Topinka had an 11-point lead in a June 17 Reboot Illinois poll and was 19 points ahead in a July 31 Reboot Illinois poll.

Good for her.  Good for the Republican Party here in Illinois.  Keep it up, Judy and Team!

Latest Poll on Governor's Race: Identifying Pat Quinn's Problem in Illinois

We were just tipped this data from the latest "We Ask Some Of Illinois" Poll and it looks like the latest patronage scandal that has erupted in Pat Quinn's administration has taken a toll.  Voters are beginning to pinpoint that issue as one that is crippling the Quinn campaign's ability to connect with Illinois.

Stay tuned for more data points and results from the poll right here on the Truth Team.

Latest Poll: Voters Say Why They'll Vote Against Mike Frerichs This Fall

We were sent the data from the latest 'We Ask Some of Illinois Poll' on the Illinois Treasurer's race and the data is clear:  there are many reasons to vote for Tom Cross for Illinois Treasurer and against Mike Frerichs, but two emerged as the leading reasons.

1.  He wears earmuffs.
2.  Because he wants to raise tons of taxes on Illinois families.

Latest Poll Shows Judy Baar Topinka Way Ahead of Sheila Simon for Illinois Comptroller

Via RebootIllinois:

Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka has a 19-point lead over her Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, according to a new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll. 

The poll, conducted July 31 among 1,005 likely voters in the November election and with a margin of error of 3.1 percent, showed that 22 percent of Democratic respondents support the Republican Topinka, who also registered 31 percent among Chicago participants — a strong showing for a Republican candidate. 

“Current State Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka has opened up a 19 point lead, perhaps aided by recent endorsements including one from the powerful Illinois Education Association,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating office of We Ask America. “Nearly 22 percent of self-proclaimed Democrats say they’d vote for her, and she’s enjoying a sizable lead with Independents. Being over 50 percent overall is another indicator of her overall strength. While lots can change between now and November, Ms. Simon has an uphill battle to catch up.”

Tom Cross Widens Lead Over Mike Frerichs in Illinois Treasurer's Race

In the race to replace current Illinois State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, Republican Tom Cross continues to expand his lead over Democrat Mike Frerichs as a new poll out today shows.  Tom Cross, who is running to restore a balanced budget to the State is leading 2:1 with independent voters and has a lead among women voters.

A poll released this morning from Reboot Illinois/We Ask America contained the latest piece of bad news for “Tax Hike Mike” Frerichs: Tom Cross is leading Frerichs by a margin of 45%-34%. 

Cross’s 11-point lead in today’s poll is up from a June 17 Reboot poll that showed Cross up +7. 

From Reboot: 

Despite Cross being from suburban Oswego and Frerichs from downstate Champaign, Cross held a 48-30 lead over Frerichs among downstate poll participants. Elsewhere, Cross held leads of 11 points in suburban Cook County and 57-27 in the collar counties.

The poll also shows Cross leading +19 among men (50.6-31.7) and +6 among women (42.1- 35.5). 

“Mike Frerichs’ support for Quinn-Madigan agenda of tax hikes and broken budgets is crushing him with voters, and his campaigns gaffes and unforced errors are threatening to derail his campaign,” said Tim Schneider, Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party. “On the other hand, Tom Cross is running to balance the budget, crack down on corruption, and fight back against job-killing tax hikes. And that’s clearly resonating with the people of Illinois.”

Latest Poll: Tom Cross Leading Mike Frerichs for Illinois Treasurer

Hot off the heels of his overwhelming (100K vote margin) victory over the DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogan in the Republican Primary this week, Illinois Treasurer's candidate Tom Cross is being reported to be ahead of his November opponent Democrat Mike Frerichs in the race.

Mike #TallTales Frerichs, who has "has joined with Governor Pat Quinn to raise taxes on Illinois’ middle class families and support economically destructive fees and regulations" and driven jobs out of Illinois is trailing Cross in the latest poll.

It appears that Illinois voters have taken notice of Mike Frerichs and his record of killing jobs and ignoring constituents.  Voters in Chicago have even had enough.   From a story in Crains' Chicago Business.

The survey found Mr. Cross ahead 34 percent to 30 percent over the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Michael Frerichs, with Mr. Cross getting an impressive 21 percent of the vote in heavily Democratic Chicago.

Along with Judy Baar Topinka - our candidate for Illinois Comptroller - we're going to line up behind Tom Cross for Illinois Treasurer.  If you haven't already, head over to his site and get involved.  Sign up for a yard sign right now!

Let's make sure we're doing everything we can to support Tom Cross this fall!  This is an important race for Illinois.

Judy Baar Topinka Leading Sheila Simon in Latest Poll

In a recently released poll (taken before the Primary), Republican Comptroller - and strong vote getter in General Elections - Judy Baar Topinka is leading her new General Election rival Sheila Simon 39 to 32.  

One survey, taken by Lake Research Partners in late January, show that Sheila Simon, who's giving up her spot as lieutenant governor to run for comptroller, trails veteran GOP incumbent Judy Baar Topinka by a fairly narrow 39 percent to 32 percent among likely general election voters. 29 percent were undecided or not answering.

The poll was shared by the Simon campaign.  But...in looking at it, we're surprised that Simon is behind by 7 points.  As pointed out by Greg Hinz at Crain's Chicago Business:

In response, a political aide to Ms. Topinka suggested that Ms. Simon should be doing better, given that she shares the same last name as the late U.S. Sen. Paul Simon, D.-Ill. And it released a page from a survey taken at roughly the same time for U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., by GS Strategy Group that showed Ms. Topinka up 43 percent to 30 percent.

Now that we have the 2014 Statewide Republican ticket in place, let's - as a party - start to rally around these candidates.   Head over to Judy's website and get involved or donate a few bucks.  Or you can head over to Facebook and "Like" her there to keep in touch.

Let's do this!

Bruce Rauner Maintains Big Lead for Illinois Governor - One Day Out

Rich Miller over at Capitol Fax has the latest WeAskAmerica poll on the Illinois Governor's Race.

The details:

Bill Brady 19% (19%)
Kirk Dillard 27% (26%)
Bruce Rauner 44% (46%)
Dan Rutherford 9% (9%)\

He has done some of the math on how the race *could* break so go check out the whole piece here.  

Bruce Rauner Still Out Front In A Big Way

See the Full Poll Results at WeAskAmerica.com

Over at WeAskAmerica.com, they've posted their latest 2014 Republican Gubernatorial Poll that shows Bruce Rauner still out in front with more than 35% of the poll.  The most dramatic numbers (to us at least) are the Dan Rutherford ones.  He's polling at just 7%.  

In a post titled "Von Rauner Express", they say:

Naturally, the other GOP gubernatorial candidates are hoping that the slings and arrows aimed at Mr. Rauner will finally derail his steady rise in the polls (see chart, below) and give their bare-cupboard campaigns a boost. Since State Treasurer Dan Rutherford‘s hopes have withered on a scandal vine, the other two are elbowing each other to claim to be the top contender. 

Last week, State Senator Kirk Dillard called on the election gods to smite Bloomington State Senator Bill Brady and Rutherford to allow him to have free rein against Rauner. While that demand left a lot of pundits scratching their itchy heads, it succeeded in getting Dillard some earned media–which may have been the plan all along. And Dillard has enjoyed a nice boost to his campaign from the endorsement of the powerful Illinois Education Association. 

Now, Bill Brady’s minions have been sidling up to reporters and others promising poll results that prove Brady is everyone’s second choice. If you fail to see the logic of bragging about being the Chosen One…er…Two, then join the club. There’s no Silver Medal in politics.

Poll: Tom Cross Wallops Bob Grogan for Illinois Treasurer

You guys remember how, a week ago, we covered a poll in the Republican Nomination for the 2014 Primary in the  Illinois Treasurer's race?  That post can be found here.  We talk through the details of the promotion around the online poll.

You'll see that one of the candidates (Bob Grogan) was busy ginning up votes for his side, while the other (Tom Cross) was silent.    The poll closed after taking in more than 1,300 votes - which wasn't the highest volume of votes cast in one of their polls:  the governor's race poll had more than 1,400 total votes cast (see their listing of past polls here), so that tells you that even if the ballot box was 'stuffed', it wasn't obnoxiously stuffed to make the results totally skewed.

Here's what the group called "Polling for Illinois" posted on their Facebook Page:

Post by Polling for Illinois.

What's that you hear coming out of the Bob Grogan Campaign Headquarters?  Click the video to hear what we're hearing.


DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogan gets trounced by a more than 3 to 1 margin in a poll he pushed his supporters to vote in?

Now, we'd be foolish to give an online poll much credence in the big picture of the race, but when viewed purely as an organizational strength tactic, Grogan and his team failed to show up.

Guess all those 'endorsements' he's been touting were too tied up with the planning for their Valentine's Day festivities to go cast a vote for their 'guy' Bob Grogan for Treasurer?

Eric Zorn: "Rauner lapping GOP Field"

Over on his long-standing (longest standing?!?) blog on the Tribune's site, Eric Zorn wraps up the Tribune's lead political story with a nice neat bow in his headline:

Rauner lapping GOP field -- Tribune poll

Zorn goes on to point out the 2:1 margin was about the same as last month.  The Dan Rutherford storyline - with his former employee - certainly isn't helping him gain ground, but maybe Kirk Dillard can make it a race?  To do that?  He needs an influx of cash, we thinks....  Why?  Because Rauner is going to make himself hard to hit.  See exhibit A:  Illinois Review reports that Bruce Rauner skipped a debate last night.   Running out the clock isn't easy, but if Rauner's campaign thus far is any indication, he's up for the challenge.  Look!  Coach is calling the '4 corners'.

Illinois Treasurer's Race Online Poll: Grogan vs. Cross

Earlier this week, we saw Republican Candidate for Treasurer Bob Grogan post on his Facebook Wall a link to an "online poll" that focuses on the race for Illinois Treasurer.  You can see the post embedded below.  In it, Bob Grogan issues a plea to his "followers" to vote on the poll.

Post by Bob Grogan, CPA.

That link  posted takes you to a poll hosted by "Polling for Illinois".  We took a peek at the results, and (at least for Bob Grogan and his campaign), they're not pretty.

You can see the 'live' results here.  With close to 1000 votes cast, Bob Grogan has secured 20% of the vote to Tom Cross' 80%.

Made us wonder if the Tom Cross for Treasurer campaign was promoting it, too.  A quick look at the Tom Cross for Treasurer Facebook page, the Tom Cross for Treasurer Twitter handle, and the Tom Cross for Treasurer website, we couldn't find nary a mention.

So...you're telling us (hint!  Check out who plays the post off at the end to see how this all ties together!) that just one candidate (Bob Grogan) promoted a poll to their audience and yet he still is getting buried in the votes?

If we're totally honest with ourselves, we here at the Truth team, aren't surprised.  From our read of the race, Tom Cross has put in the time, built the track record, traveled around Illinois supporting candidates up and down the ballot and has a broad base of support.

But...back to the actual poll.  Some of the comments/rebuttals are priceless.  We're thinking that some plants from each of the campaigns are involved here, but we can't verify that thought.  

What is clear, however, is the frustration level demonstrated by the supporters of Bob Grogan, and the calm, clear and direct response by supporters of Tom Cross for Treasurer.

Prime Example:  Grogan supporter must be troubled by the huge vote lead that Tom Cross has over Bob Grogan.  So, he/she makes a statement about how the votes must be due to "government" workers casting their votes.

And the response from a Tom Cross supporter?  Direct and effective.

We'll let the skeptical child play us off: